South Africa have finished their games in Pool B and after Sunday’s win over Tonga, they are currently sitting pretty at the top of the group.

Reflecting on the teams’ efforts to date South Africa’s Director of Rugby Rassie Erasmus said he was pleased with what the team had achieved and where they were.

“We would rather sit here than be Ireland, who have been number one in the world all this time and Scotland just have to beat them by eight points, and they are out of the tournament.

“Of the three teams, we are probably the most comfortable.”

But what exactly are the permutations. The reality is that South Africa, Ireland, and Scotland can all win the group, and they all have a chance of going home. Here’s what needs to happen to affect each of those scenarios.

For SA to win the group

– If South Africa are to win the group, then they need Scotland to beat Ireland. SA cannot win the group if Scotland lose.
– Ireland must not secure two bonus points
– Scotland must win by between 5 and 20 points.

For SA to finish third

– There is only one scenario where this happens. South Africa will head home if Scotland beat Ireland by more than 21 points, but Ireland scores a four-try bonus point

For SA to finish second

– This is the most likely scenario. If Ireland win SA will finish second
– SA will finish second if Scotland and Ireland end in a draw.
– If Scotland win by four points or less.